Defeating Evolution On A Mathematical Basis - An Article I Wrote in High School
The majority of the arguments against or for evolution or creation are in areas of science like biology, geology, physics, etc. Mathematics is involved in all sciences, of course, but it would be nice to have a somewhat complete, solid argument against evolution using almost entirely mathematics. I did some reading, researching, and messing around with probability equations and eventually came up with what I was looking for. It’s not as simple as I'd like it to be, but I want to make sure everything's explained. Here I present it to you.
First, we need to assume a few variables. I am giving evolution every possible benefit of the doubt here, I'm using figures that nearly every evolutionist agrees on.
First of these is the total available time in the universe, the maximum of which (according to evolutionists) is 3 trillion years.
Second is the total available space, which is agreed on to be about 5 billion light years in radius. Of course, as far as we can tell, space goes on for an infinity, but we're talking about space with some actual matter in it. This is all according to the theories produced by evolutionists (the big bang being the primary one). You may not have been told this, but the universe we can see has limits. At a certain point, there's nothing out there anymore, just space. That's why it’s dark in space because there are limits to how much matter (i.e. stars, etc.) and energy there is. If you think of the available space as a sphere, the volume would be a staggering 3.9269908169872x1029 or 392,699,081,698,720,000,000,000,000,000 cubic light years!!! We're giving evolution a lot of leeways already, but let’s continue.
Okay, the number of particles possible in the universe (we're talking tiny particles here, smallest units of matter) is 10130 electron-sized particles. This is the absolute max if they're all bunched up as densely as possible. Most scientists, however, estimate there are about 1080 electron-sized particles in the universe today. The First Law of Thermodynamics states that the amount of matter and energy in the universe remains constant, meaning matter and energy cannot be created or destroyed by anyone or anything inside it. But, we'll stick with 10130 just to continue giving evolution as much room to work with as possible. Remember, 10130 means 10 with 130 zeros after it. Here it is typed out: 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.
Next, we assume that each of these particles can act in 1020 events per second. (By the way, this has no relation to the amount of available time, although the exponent happens to be the same number [10 to the 20th power = # of seconds in 3 trillion years] in case you were wondering) Once again, giving evolution every possible benefit of the doubt.
So, summing up, here's what we've got so far:
Total Available Time: 3 Trillion Years = 1020 seconds
Total Available Space: 5 Billion Light Years Radius
Maximum Number of Particles: 10130 electron-sized particles
Number of Events Each Particle Can Act In 1020 events/second
Whew. Now that that's over, let’s get into the equations and stuff. Okay, we need to know what the number of possible events in the universe in all time. Sound scary? Not really. We simply multiply the number of particles by the total available time by the number of events per particle per time unit. Let’s use T for total available time, P for the number of particles, and Ev for the number of events per particle per time unit. Below is the equation.
# Of Possible Events = P x T x Ev
Substituting numbers for variables...
# Of Possible Events = (10130)(1020)(1020) = 10170
Okay, now we go into the mathematics of living systems. Marcel E. Golay determined in a series of studies that the simplest imaginable replicating system ("living" system) organizing itself randomly would require a series of about 1500 successive events. We will, again, give evolution every benefit of the doubt and give each event a 50-50 shot. So that's 1/2 probability. This is a very generous probability in favor of evolution. To figure the probability that any series of 1500 successive chance events will generate a replicating system, we simply do 1/2 to the 1500th power. Below is the probability in different forms.
(1/2)1500 = (1/10)450 = 1/10450 = 10-450
So, the probability is 1 in 10450. That's a 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 chance.
But we're not done yet. Okay, the total number of possible sequences of 1500 events is 10167. To determine the probability of the chance origin of life anywhere, anytime in the universe is determined by first multiplying the number of possible sequences of 1500 events by the probability of any one such sequence producing life...
10167 x 10-450= 10-283 = 1/10283
Remember that a negative power means 1 divided by the normal exponent. That's how we get 1 in 10 to the 283 power from 10 to the -283. Now, in case you were wondering, 10283 is 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.
But now you're saying, "Well, the chance may be really really slight, but there's still a chance. It's not like it's zero!" Ahhh, but I'm not finished quite yet! Remember when we found the number of possible events in the universe ever? Well, in math we learn that when the probability of any event is smaller than 1 out of the # of events that could ever possibly occur (in this case, less than 1/10170), then the probability of its occurrence is ZERO! So, let’s take a look.
1/10283 < 1/10170
So what does this mean? It means the probability of the chance origin of life anywhere, anytime in the universe is a big fat 0.
It’s like trying to roll an 8 on a 6-sided die. It’s impossible. 1/8 < 1/6
After giving evolution and random chance every possible benefit of the doubt, the probability turns out the be zero anyways. And this isn't even considering the fact that after this simplest replicating system organized itself via random chance, it then would have to evolve into more and more complex living systems! Imagine how many of those sequences of successive events would be needed to make a human being! I'm thinking.. a lot. But we don't even need to go that far. There's more!
Let’s pretend, for a moment, that the simplest replicating system did organize itself in the form of the most basic, replicating system upon which all life on Earth is based: the DNA molecule. We know that DNA mutates about once every 10,000,000 replications in humans, who are extremely complex and prone to DNA mistakes, mutations, damage, etc. You might be thinking that once every 10,000,000 replications doesn't fit with what your biology teacher taught you. They probably told you our DNA is mutating all the time. This is true because our bodies contain roughly 60-100 trillion cells, nearly all of which have DNA molecules inside (red blood cells have no nucleus, and therefore no DNA). With so many cells dividing so often, there's always going to be mutation going on. Remember, also, that DNA repairs itself after a mutation, damage, or mistake occurs! Only mutations and damage which remove or change so much genetic material that it cannot be repaired are passed on after replication. Despite all that, we'll stick with the mutation rate of once every 10,000,000 (10-7) replications to continue giving evolution every possible benefit of the doubt.
Evolution requires a series of related mutations for it to work. The probability of getting just 2 mutations that are related to one another is the product of their separate probabilities.
10-7 x 10-7 = 10-14 = 1 / 100 trillion =
1 in 100,000,000,000,000
10-7 x 10-7 x 10-7 = 10-21 = 1 / 1 billion trillion =
1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
The ocean isn't big enough to hold enough bacteria to make it at all likely to find a single bacterium with 3 sequential related mutations.
10-7 x 10-7 x 10-7 x 10-7 = 10-28 = 1 / 1028 =
1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
The Earth isn't big enough to hold enough organisms to make 4 sequential related mutations at all likely.
Remember, now, that a single mutation is a random change of some sort in a single DNA rung. That's 2 nucleotides (also called bases) tied together on the DNA "ladder". A nucleotide is a single molecule of either Adenine, Guanine, Thymine, or Cytosine which are the 4 "letters" of the genetic code. A single mutation doesn't change much of anything at all. It would take hundreds, thousands, or even more mutations to make a substantial change of any kind.
All this, not to mention the fact that all mutations ever observed since the dawn of scientific observation have been either neutral or harmful changes. Evolution requires positive mutations to occur at least somewhere, but there doesn't seem to be any. Also not to mention the fact that any mutation in progress, say the development of an eye, would be a disadvantage and a harmful mutation until the eye is "completed". How does this work if evolution requires positive, sequential, related mutations combined with natural selection? The process of natural selection would eliminate any organism with these in-progress mutations before it ever got perfected.
Let’s put some more math in here. Let’s take the age of the Earth according to evolutionists, 4.5 billion years, and look at the chance arisal of life on Earth and its evolution up to man from another perspective. Biochemists have discovered that there are 1087 different ways to put together the material in just one human DNA rung. There is only 1 out of those 1087 ways to arrange that single DNA rung correctly. That's 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 So if the Earth is 4.5 billion years old, that equals 1025 seconds. If trial and error were attempted once every second for 4.5 billion years, there would not be nearly enough time to put together even one DNA rung in the entire time evolutionists say the Earth has existed. They say that life arose and began evolving only about 2 billion years ago. That cuts it down to about 109.3 seconds. Once again, evolution could never have happened.
Going back to the cells in the human body, we'll take the low number for the number of cells in a human being, 60 trillion, and subtract the number of red blood cells (about 27 billion), giving us 59.973 trillion or 1013.78 cells with DNA inside. Each of which has 46 strands of DNA (chromosomes, when replicating) in its nucleus. Therefore, the human body contains 2.7 quadrillion or 2.7 x 1014 strands of DNA. The 46 strands of DNA are composed of 3 billion base pairs, which equals 6 billion nucleotides (DNA "letters"). 3 billion is about 109.48, we'll use that exponent because it's easier to write. Now let's find out how many DNA rungs (base pairs) are in a human being. We multiply the number of nucleated cells by the number of base pairs in all 46 strands of DNA.
1013.78 x 109.48 = 1023.26 = 18,197,008,586,100,000,000,000,000,000
Now, we're going multiply the number of ways to arrange the material in one DNA rung by the number of DNA rungs in the human body. This is sort of the number of ways to arrange all the genetic material in a human being. There are other factors and limitations involved, in the arrangement of the nucleotides in the DNA molecule, but this will work since the DNA molecule supposedly arose by random chance anyways, and random chance wouldn't follow the "rules" of the genetic code because the genetic code supposedly didn't even exist yet! All this, still, as evolutionists say it happened. Chance chemical reactions.
1087 x 1023.26 = 10115.26 = 18,197,008,586,100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
Most of these numbers can't even be handled by the calculatory programs I'm using. I had to write a custom program just to write out these long numbers from the scientific notation I put in (like 2.7 x 1014). Anyways, taking the 10115.26 from above, and that we know that each person has unique DNA (except identical twins), we'll give even more leeway to evolution by using the population of the Earth today (about 6 billion or ) and divide that by the number of different ways to arrange human genetic code. Then we'll reduce it to a 1 in x figure, and compare it with the age of the Earth according to evolutionists.
6 Billion = 109.78
109.78 / 10115.26 = 10-105.48 = 1 in 10105.48
4.5 Billion Years = 1025 < 10105.48
Again, if trial and error were attempted every second to for 4.5 billion years, there would not be anywhere near enough time to organize the genetic material for humans on Earth today. It would be even more impossible if we were to use, say, the first 2 humans (male & female) to "evolve" anywhere on Earth and put them in the equation. 2 over 10115.26 is a heck of a lot smaller than 6 billion over 10115.26. It just doesn't work.
One can only conclude, as I have, that there IS a Creator. Only God could have created the universe we live in, the Earth, and life on Earth. Only an intelligent, powerful, designing mind could have created life from the ground up, to the very last detail, so it all worked together the way it was supposed to. Time and chance simply don’t do it. Even when we put in the figures that evolutionists and big bang theorists give us in supposed "support" of evolution, the truth still wins over. Doesn't it make sense? No matter what people think of for some other way the universe and life came to be, the laws of nature, the laws of science (which God created, too!) win over them and prove them impossible. Indeed, God is an awesome God to have created all we see around us. The more I learn about science, the more I study nature and the inner workings of living systems, the more I am confident that God truly did create it all, exactly as it is written in Genesis. Our God is awesome!